Harnessing Plasma Biomarkers to Predict Immunotherapy Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Role of cfDNA, ctDNA, and Cytokines

Abstract

Immunotherapy has improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); yet, objective radiological responses occur in only about 20% of cases, suggesting variable benefits. This study aimed to identify serologic markers predictive of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). A cohort of 38 advanced HCC patients receiving immunotherapy was prospectively analyzed. Levels of cell-free DNA (cfDNA), circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), and cytokines were measured pre-treatment and three months post-treatment initiation. Genomic profiling of ctDNA was also conducted. Baseline levels of cfDNA and ctDNA effectively discriminated HCC patients based on their radiological response to ICIs. Additionally, individuals with pathologic mutations in the CDKN2A gene exhibited significantly reduced survival. Patients with progressive disease (PD) as their best radiological response had significantly fewer copy number variations (CNVs) than those with a radiological response. Furthermore, levels of IL10, PD1, and TGFβ assessed after three months of treatment showed significant variations correlating with survival status. In conclusion, the analysis of cfDNA, ctDNA, and cytokines may improve treatment selection for HCC patients by predicting their expected response to immunotherapies.