Phase I prognostic online (PIPO): A web tool to improve patient selection for oncology early phase clinical trials

Abstract

Purpose Patient selection in phase 1 clinical trials (Ph1t) continues to be a challenge. The aim of this study was to develop a user-friendly prognostic calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) outcomes in patients to be included in Ph1t with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) or targeted agents (TAs) based on clinical parameters assessed at baseline. Methods Using a training cohort with consecutive patients from the VHIO phase 1 unit, we constructed a prognostic model to predict median OS (mOS) as a primary endpoint and 3-month (3m) OS rate as a secondary endpoint. The model was validated in an internal cohort after temporal data splitting and represented as a web application. Results We recruited 799 patients (training and validation sets, 558 and 241, respectively). Median follow-up was 21.2 months (m), mOS was 10.2 m (95% CI, 9.3–12.7) for ICIs cohort and 7.7 m (95% CI, 6.6–8.6) for TAs cohort. In the multivariable analysis, six prognostic variables were independently associated with OS – ECOG, number of metastatic sites, presence of liver metastases, derived neutrophils/(leukocytes minus neutrophils) ratio [dNLR], albumin and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels. The phase 1 prognostic online (PIPO) calculator showed adequate discrimination and calibration performance for OS, with C-statistics of 0.71 (95% CI 0.64–0.78) in the validation set. The overall accuracy of the model for 3m OS prediction was 87.2% (95% CI 85%–90%). Conclusions PIPO is a user-friendly objective and interactive tool to calculate specific survival probabilities for each patient before enrolment in a Ph1t. The tool is available at https://pipo.vhio.net/.